Census 2010 numbers:
Prince William County – 402,002 residents
Avg. Cong. Dist. – 727,366 residents
Avg. State Senate Dist. – 200,026 residents
Avg. House of Delegates Dist. – 80,010 residents
Avg. Magisterial Dist. — 57,429 residents
Given these numbers, Prince William County should only be represented by a single congressional district and comprise 55 percent of the entire district. It should only have two state senate districts, but they would not be shared with any other locality. Likewise, it should have five House of Delegates districts unto itself.
At the county level, the ideal magisterial district size under the current 7 district make-up would be 57,429. How do those districts stack up as of now?
Brentsville district — 79,541
Coles district — 51,770
Dumfries district — 53,936
Gainesville district — 73,142
Neabsco district — 49,097
Occoquan district — 40,241
Woodbridge district — 54,275
When the county redistricts, it will have to start in the west and move eastward as the two westernmost districts, Gainesville and Brentsville, must shed the most residents. Gainesville will have to lose approximately 16,000 people who have nowhere to go but into the neighboring Brentsville District. At that point, Brentsville will have to cut loose a whopping 38,000 residents into the neighboring Coles and Dumfries districts, pulling each of those districts northwest.
While each of those districts need to add just a few thousand additional people to get it within 5 percent of the ideal district size, the massive overflow from Brentsville spilling into them is going to have noticeable impacts on one or both districts. That in turn will pull the Occoquan district to its west as well — in fact, it is going to have to shed the Occoquan precinct, most likely into the Neabsco district, which could use the population increase. (It would also consolidate most if not all of the Dale City precincts in the Neabsco district as well.)
The significant shifts are going to necessitate some name changes for magisterial districts as I can foresee neither the Occoquan nor the Brentsville precincts no longer being part of their district namesakes. Once I get the precinct level data, I will be better able to assess further changes.
Arlington + Alexandria + Fairfax County + Fairfax city = 2 congressional districts.
Prince William + Loudoun + Manassas = 1 cd
Draw the inner two so that Jerry’s and Jim’s residences are in the same CD just to watch them squirm.
I suppose we have to draw the outer one with an extension into Vienna so Frank will not have to move but it would be better to give someone new the opportunity in more logical district. Or draw Frank into one of the inner CDs and lets find out how well liked he really is.